Very strong El Niño builds, raising drought and food risks
The Philippine weather agency PAGASA says a very strong El Niño is now present in the tropical Pacific and may peak by late 2026, persisting into early 2027. Its projections show drought could cover virtually the entire Philippines by March 2027, with parts of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao possibly dry by end-November. Separately, Grist reports the event is already the strongest on record, and a storm last weekend killed at least four people in the US Southwest, with Clovis, New Mexico, receiving 28.84 inches of rain since 20 September against an average of 3.3 inches. Yale Environment 360 links the event to deepening drought and food-supply strain worldwide.
Key facts
- PAGASA defines below normal rainfall as a 21% to 60% drop from average, and way below normal as over 60%.
- PAGASA expects temperatures to be higher than average despite the northeast monsoon.
- NOAA's seasonal outlook suggests El Niño could bring increased winter precipitation to much of the southern United States.
- El Niño has helped cancel Atlantic hurricanes by disrupting upper-level winds, and this season's first hurricane came nearly a month later than any previous record.
- A 2014 study cited by Yale Environment 360 found El Niño can lift global soybean output by up to 5 percent while cutting maize, rice and wheat by up to 4 percent.
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Why it matters
A prolonged strong El Niño could affect rainfall, harvests and food prices across several regions.
What changed
First published from Rappler, Grist and Yale Environment 360