Iran's oil revenue faces collapse under US blockade
Iran is drafting its 2027 budget on the assumption that oil revenue could fall to zero, according to senior budget official Mohammad Ghasemi. The U.S. Treasury reports Iran has loaded no crude since 25 August, and oil held outside the U.S. blockade dropped from 88.8 million barrels in mid-July to zero by mid-October. Oil makes up about 30 % of Iran's government budget. Analysts report the figures in this digest.
Key facts
- Oil accounts for 50–60 % of total regime revenue when indirect income is included, per analysts Gregory Brew and Miad Maleki.
- Kpler expects oil revenue to stop around mid-December if no new deliveries occur.
- Deputy director Mohammad Tabibian said adapting to sanctions does not mean eliminating their harm.
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Why it matters
Iran's state finances depend heavily on crude sales, so a sustained halt in exports would strain government spending.
What changed
First published from OilPrice.com