Fossil CO2 emissions seen dipping slightly in 2026
Global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions are projected to reach 38.2 billion tons in 2026, a 0.4 percent fall from 2025, according to a Global Carbon Project study published on 10 Nov. Researchers say oil-related emissions drop 1.9 percent, linked to high energy prices after the US-led war on Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Natural gas emissions fall 0.3 percent, while coal emissions rise 0.6 percent. The study credits solar, wind and electric vehicles with meeting two-thirds of the growth in global energy demand. It was released as nations gathered for the UN COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Türkiye.
Key facts
- Fossil emissions rose 1.2 percent in 2025, and the average annual increase from 2019 to 2025 was 0.8 percent.
- Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia is among those reporting the projection.
- Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research says a one-year drop is not a peak unless driven by structural change.
- The projected decline would be the first since 2020, according to researchers cited by the New York Times.
Summarised with AI from 5 sources · Updated 13:41Read our AI policy
Why it matters
The projected fall is driven by wartime energy shocks, which researchers say is not a sustainable route to lower emissions.
What changed
Summary updated
Summary updated
Summary updated
First published from Phys.org, The Guardian, ABC News (Australia), Carbon Brief and The Hindu